I explained in my previous blog post that the cloud era is here to stay and with this new era, there are also quite a few technologies that the ISV has to select to build a solution. One key thing is to select the cloud platform but an increasingly important technology that the ISV has to evaluate is what development environment to use to support hundreds of different mobility devices, both smart phones as well as tablets.
When I look back not more than five years, the requirements for applications were much different that today when it comes to consuming information. Today, the end user expects to be able to use a smart phone and tablet to view/update information using a solution that typically is built on cloud technology. Flash used to be the main technology to build applications for the Internet browser, but with the decision that Steve Jobs and Apple did on Flash of not supporting Flash on Apple iPad, the success of Flash is doubtful in the future. Consumers do not care about technology, they care about having the ability to consume information and this is something that the technology industry forgets every now and then. If somebody has any doubts about this, just look at what is happening on the US markets and what has happened for example for RIM and BlackBerry market share on smartphones. It is brutal.
Back in 2010, there were quite a few articles of whether HTML5 will kill Flash. There are millions of Flash web sites whereby I do not think Flash will go away anytime soon, but the real question is whether the ISV should believe that Flash is going to survive going forward. My personal opinion is that I would not invest time and money to Flash anymore as we all know it is not going to support all of the relevant mobility interfaces and I do not think that for example RIMs approach by marketing its BlackBerry PlayBook to support Flash makes a difference in the large scheme of things. The question that each ISV needs to evaluate is what technology it expects to support from a long-term application development perspective.
We already know by now, that Flash will not survive in the long run and has already become a major limitation for many ISVs. When you really think about it, users have already won the battle by ignoring the Flash and showing this by buying iPads even if they know it won’t support Flash. Can you afford building sites and ignore the millions information consumers? I do not think so. Many entrepreneurs (me included) have made the decision not to allow any Flash technology to be used on the web-site as most smart phones and tablets do not support Flash and Flash not optimized either from SEO and SEM perspective. Check your web site analytics/statistics and you will find out that smart phones and tablets are becoming more relevant in information consumption.
I believe that the next wave of innovation will be coming from software vendors that are able to combine the cloud and mobility in a way that helps end user organizations to become more effective and productive in whatever the application area happens to be. I read an interesting article “Building An Enterprise Software Company That Doesn’t Suck” where the author described how large enterprise software packages are losing the appeal from both end user organizations as well as users. People are sick and tired of complicated and hard-to-use software solutions that do not bring any value add to a user’s daily life. Organizations have forced users to use software to fulfill some type of compliance rule but I my bet is that with the new generation of users, this will change whether organizations want it or not. The new generation entering the marketplace is fluent mobility users, they use social networks as we used to use the regular phone and they would not care less about the corporate compliance stuff and based on research, they won’t even apply to organizations that are old-fashioned way of viewing the world.
Technology selections for an ISV business is always tricky and I have had to do this many time during my career and I have also had a few misses such as selecting an application development tool from Synon (acquired by CA) called Obsydian that never really took off in the marketplace and my developers were never really able to use it effectively. The same applies to the selection today in respect to mobility development. Can you afford making a mistake, spend money in development and then suddenly realize that something else should have been used. I do not think so.
I recently read an interesting article “Seven Reasons HTML5 is Killing Flash” with some interesting points of why HTML 5 could potentially kill flash. According to the article, there are more than 109 million mobile users with HTML-5 ready browsers, but by 2016 the estimate according to ABI Research is that there will be more than 2.1 billion mobile users with compatible browsers. According to ABI Research, there will be 25 key features that will make HTML 5 competitive and the seven that was picked in the article are as follows:
1) Video Play: HTML5 includes a tag for videos that allows it to play with the start, stop, pause etc.
2) Video Record: This will become even more important going forward as mobile phones have video recording and HTML5 will support this
3) Audio Play/Record: Today, the user needs, Flash, QuickTime or Java to play or record audio, but with HTML5 it is just another tag.
4) Apps: HTML5 allows Web pages to access the same routines that make browsers work and enables them to become like any application. I think this is one of the key things when you think about mobile application development using HTML5
5) Rich 2D Graphics: All types of sophisticated two-dimensional graphics will be built into HTML5
6) IM: Instant messaging will be built into HTML5 by virtue of Web sockets
7) Real-time Streams: Web sockets will also allow any Web-page designer to easily add real-time data streams to the application.
HTML5 could become the best friend for the ISVs going forward as it will provide the broadest support from a device/browser perspective and when smart phones will get HTML5 compliant Internet browsers. HTML provides a better way to support multiple devices as is explained in the article “Enterprise App Stores Harness HTML5” by Colin Johnson.
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